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ETP 2012 Factsheets and FAQ

Here you can find the answers to most of your questions concerning ETP 2012, factsheets on specific topics and frequently asked questions (FAQ).

 

A new age in electrification

Low-carbon electricity is a prerequisite to reducing fossil fuel use and to mitigating CO₂ emissions not only in power generation but across all the end-use sectors (industry, transport and buildings). The power generation sector is responsible for roughly 40% of CO2 emissions, but it is a relatively centralised sector. Read more
Factsheet ETP 2012 - Electrification

Enabling low-carbon end-use

The industry, building (including residential and services sub-sector) and transport sectors account for a great majority of final energy consumption. To achieve ETP 2012’s 2°C Scenario (2DS), which gives the world an 80% chance of keeping average global temperature rise below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels, these sectors must couple increase use of decarbonised electricity as well as improve energy efficiency. Read more
Factsheet ETP 2012 - End Use Sector

Energy systems

A future low-carbon energy system will be more diverse and complex. Efficiently integrating different sectors and technologies is critical, because technologies interact and depend on each other. n this context, “systems thinking” is essential to explore opportunities to leverage technology deployments within existing and new energy infrastructure. Read more
Factsheet ETP 2012 - Systems Thinking

The wider benefits of the 2°C Scenario

The deployment of a low-carbon energy system, as laid out in the ETP 2012’s 2°C Scenario (2DS), delivers wide benefits by enhancing energy security, environmental protection and economic growth. The world today is heavily dependent on finite fossil fuels, leading not only to significant emissions of climate-changing carbon dioxide (CO₂), but also posing broader environmental, economic, energy security and geopolitical challenges. Read more
Factsheet ETP 2012 - Wider benefits of 2DS

ETP 2012 FAQ

What are the most important technologies and sources for emission reduction in ETP 2012 "2 degree scenario"? What is their readiness for application?

  • Energy efficiency in end use: 31% of reductions compared to the 4DS.
    • Much of this can be realized now, at net benefit.
  • Renewables in power generation 28%.
    • Great progress already made in photovoltaic (PV) and wind. Offshore wind and CSP also have large potential
  • Carbon capture and storage (CCS): 22%.
    • Still struggling, large-scale demonstration needed
  • Nuclear: 9%
    • Great uncertainties remain, although a majority of countries remain commited to nuclear even after the Great East Japan Earthquake and the accident in Fukushima.
  • End-use fuel switching: 9%
    • Some can be done fairly easily, some more difficult, particularly in industry.
  • Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 3% .

Which specific new technological changes may improve energy efficiency, and how does the IEA see behaviour changing so that efficiency is embraced at last?

  • Vehicle fuel efficiency and improved buildings shells are two major areas where we already have the technologies. Policy is required to incentivise their use.
  • We need both technologies that enable changes in behaviour (eg, charging stations for electric vehicles (EVs) – and policies that incentivise changed behaviour and new consumer choices (eg, carbon pricing).
  • In the longer term, altered preferences and attitudes can be hugely important, which require better education and information.

Why does oil remain a main player despite the clean-energy technology transformation? How does oil fit into a clean-energy future?

  • First of all, we have built an energy system around cheap oil. This takes a long time to change.
  • Second, oil should be only be used where the alternatives are not ready, and phased out elsewhere. We are already seeing oil disappear form electricity generation. It is likely that oil will still be used for a long time in the transport sector, especially for air and shipping.
  • Eventually, as shown in the analysis of how to reach zero emissions, oil use must be phased out in all sectors.

What leads to ETP 2012’s 80% certainty that its investment plan can hold global warming to 2° C?

Which parts of the world pay how much of that USD 36 trillion extra investment?

  • In absolute terms, almost two thirds of these investment needs are in non-OECD countries, with China alone accounting for almost 20%.
  • In per-capita terms, , investments in the United States are more than double those in China
  • Of course, in a globalised world there is nothing that says that just because a power plant is built in one country, it is also paid for by investors in that country.

For the investment payback, how does the IEA propose making it so those investing in the new technologies can reap the returns? Or otherwise are encouraged to invest?

  • How to redistribute resources is a central job for governments.
  • .A first step should be to price energy correctly so that it pays to invest.
  • Individual pricing of energy use in buildings, included rented ones, is a good example where technology and policy can help. Right now, the person who must invest in more efficient heating may not be the one paying the bill that would motivate the investment.

What specific infrastructure changes are needed to make low-carbon energy work (despite variability)?

  • A stronger and smarter grid is essential. This will enable variations in generation and demand to be spread out more geographically – when the wind is blowing in Germany, that country can export energy to France – and also make it easier for consumers to use energy more efficiently.
  • Infrastructure for new vehicle technologies is also key. For example, charging stations for electric vehicles, filling stations for biofuels or transportation of hydrogen.

How does ETP 2012 see hydrogen gaining its “big role in the energy system” and how soon?

  • To take one example, hydrogen used in fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEV), is a logical low-carbon solution for a range of vehicle types, such as longer-range cars and trucks.
  • Hydrogen technology, however, suffers from a nearly complete lack of infrastructure,  and fuel cells are still expensive.
  • Governments therefore need to think strategically on how to build the infrastructure, and also step up R&D efforts

Only 10% of technologies are meeting the deployment objectives: If you could add two technologies to that list, which would they be?

  • Energy efficiency. Although not always spectacular, the potential in a myriad of technologies that can improve efficiency is enormous. We just need to unlock them. Fuel efficiency is a good example.
  • Second, we really need to get CCS going. The knowledge is there for the most part, but we still lack full-scale demonstration. Achieving the 2DS without CCS will be very challenging and costly.

Why is the IEA producing another global temperature scenario? (I can answer by reworking comparison material from first presslines.)

  • The World Energy Outlook’s principal outlook for the energy future and its impact on global temperatures is the New Policies Scenario (NPS). That scenario is broadly equivalent to the 4DS in ETP 2012, as both project a long-term temperature rise of 4°C.
  • But ETP 2012's central scenario is the 2DS, whose name indicates the much tougher target of cutting energy-related CO₂ emissions by more than half in 2050 compared with 2009 – limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C.
  • The big difference is that the 2DS is based on extra spending on technology that limit fossil-fuel use in the next decades, so much so that even natural gas starts to become a high-carbon fuel after around 2030.
  • By contrast, both the 4DS and the WEO’s Golden Age for Gas scenario do not incorporate further switch to renewables and nuclear after 2030.

 

What do the IEA and ETP 2012 see as the big changes for nuclear in terms of technology?

  • One is the development of smaller reactors. These can be more easily deployed as replacement for existing power plants. They could also potentially be produced in modules. The main challenge is to bring down the cost of these.

Does the book’s outlook for gas assume acceptance of the Golden Rules for Gas? If not, does gas still fit into the 2DS; if so, can gas avoid becoming a (relatively) high-carbon fuel past 2035?

 

  • The Golden Rules scenario does not meet climate objectives, it is close to the 4DS, which sees a 4°C increase in average global temperature. ETP 2012's central scenario is the 2DS, whose name indicates the much tougher target of cutting energy-related CO₂ emissions by more than half in 2050 compared with 2009 – limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C.
  • Gas will be important as a transitional fuel, for example to improve flexibility and to replace coal.
  • In the long term, if gas with CCS becomes cost competitive, we could see greater use of gas even in a 2DS

What developments, current or future, in your book make CCS more palatable, and what else needs to be done to make it a viable tool in avoiding emissions?

  • The technical potential of CCS is certainly still very large. If the intital hurdles can be overcome – and here governments will have to play a big role to fund demonstration – we believe CCS can be a cost competitive and viable option.

 

Part 1 Vision, Status and Tools for the Transition

Chapter 1 The Global Outlook

Why are ETP 2012's costs for transforming the energy system lower than in some other studies?

  • The ETP "bottom-up" model analyses each sector in detail, with costs associated with individual technology options, finding mitigation options that end up saving money.
  • "Top-down" models that cover the entire economy feature less technological detail and typically assume that no negative-cost mitigation options. Thus, they often overestimate costs.

Does the 2DS hurt economic growth?

  • Many factors influence economic growth, and the net effect is difficult to quantify. Therefore, for modelling purposes, the scenarios therefore use consistent GDP growth rates.

 How does the 2DS affect fossil-fuel prices?

  • 2DS actions significantly influence energy demand and the mix of fuels used, pushing prices down compared with the 6DS and the 4DS.

 Does the 2DS fully ensure energy security?

  • The 2DS strengthens energy security more than the 6DS and the 4DS, mainly because of:
    • reduced energy dependence and
    • a more diverse set of technologies and fuels.
  • But diversification of fuel sources presents operational challenges, e.g., increased reliance on imported electricity.
  • Low-carbon technologies need to be appraised for impact on the overall risk portfolio.

 

Chapter 2 Tracking Clean Energy Progress

ETP 2012 says not enough is being done to deploy clean energy technologies. Who is responsible for this shortfall and what can be done?

  • Some key technologies have progressed well, notably such renewable technologies as wind, solar PV hydro and biomass.
  • But technologies with great potential for energy and emissions savings – in particular carbon capture and storage and aids to efficiency – are making the least progress.   
    • We are all responsible.
      • Governments need to enhance policy support to accelerate the deployment of available technologies as well as scale up public research, development and deployment to bring emerging technologies to market.
      • That in turn will incentivise business to make the necessary investments.
      • Citizens must also play their part, by making informed decisions about their energy choices and electing officials who make clean energy a policy priority.

 

Chapter 3 Policies to Promote Technology Innovation

What can be done to accelerate the energy innovation process?

  • Governments can steer innovation trends by channelling targeted policy support towards the whole range of activities and sectors that encompass energy innovation. Top priorities:  
    • mitigating risks associated with developing and commercialising advanced technologies;
    • addressing bottlenecks for existing technologies; and
    • mobilising private-sector funds.
  • Useful support measures include:
    • economic instruments (such as carbon pricing and energy taxes);
    • regulatory measures (such as standards and mandates); and
    • direct public-support investment for research, development, demonstration and deployment of advanced technologies.

 What measures does the IEA recommend so governments will invest enough in RD&D to promote the necessary technologies to achieve the 2DS in 2050?

  • The IEA calls for a twofold to fivefold increase in annual public RD&D spending in low-carbon technologies. Past public investments in developing low-carbon technologies have led to large improvements in specific energy technologies, energy sectors and even national economies, and studies in the EU and in the US show positive returns for R&D investments.
  • To avoid spreading funding too thinly across small, subcritical areas, governments should focus efforts in technologies where they already have capabilities and potential cost-competitiveness or other particular comparative advantages.
  • Governments must know at all times the state of the technologies and the market structures in which they are being developed.

 What justifies support policies for technology?

  • Drivers for targeted support policies of advanced low-carbon technologies include:
    • climate change mitigation, of course; but also
    • energy mix diversification, which reduces dependence on imports and contributes to increased energy security;
    • strengthening the competitive edge of domestic markets and industries;
    • improving productivity and developing local employment; and
    • reduction of other pollutants besides CO₂ as well as related environmental risks.
    • Targeted technology support can also improve the long-term cost-effectiveness and feasibility of climate policy. There are two dimensions to this:
    • Cost reductions from learning-by-doing. Up-front investments needed to “buy down” the cost of a technology can be outweighed by the future savings that technology can deliver.
    • When there are time constraints for the scale-up of new technologies, it can be cost-effective to begin high-cost abatement activities before low-cost opportunities are exhausted in order to enable the new technology to scale-up quickly to deliver the required emissions reduction.

 

Chapter 4 Financing the Clean Energy Revolution

Is the 2DS really affordable?

  • Although the USD 36 trillion in additional investments needed from 2010 to 2050 is significant, it represents less than 1% of cumulative GDP over this period.
  • The additional cost will reduce spending on fossil fuels by USD 103 trillion to USD 150 trillion depending on whether or not we include the impact of lower fuel prices caused by lower energy demand in the 2DS.
  • The net benefit of moving to low-carbon energy technologies is estimated at USD 61 trillion undiscounted and USD 5 trillion using a 10% discount rate.

What are the major obstacles to financing clean energy technology?

  • Uncertainty in national regulatory policies and support frameworks remains the most common obstacle to greater private financing.
  • Failure to set the right low-carbon policies and market mechanisms risks encouraging continued investments in assets that raise global temperatures.

 

Part 2 Energy Systems

What do you mean by "systems thinking"?

  • Much current analysis focuses on specific sectors or technologies. Systems thinking looks at the entire energy system in terms of each new technology's impacts and opportunities.
  • Systems thinking also challenges the traditional distinctions between end-use sectors on two levels:
    • It sharpens the focus on the useful energy needs of specific subgroups (the service's actual efficiency, e.g. thermal comfort, instead of the energy delivered).
    • It looks for complementary resources and needs across different sectors.

 

Chapter 5 Heating and Cooling

Why does ETP 2012 focus on heating and cooling?

  • Heating accounts for 46% of global final energy demand, and the demand for cooling is set to rise steeply as developing countries industrialise.
  • Demand for cooling worldwide is comparatively low  at present, but that will change because of economic growth in Asia (mostly China, India and the ASEAN) and in some regions of Latin America and Africa up to 2050.
  • In many of these areas, the demand for cooling is high in the hierarchy of needs, with the first major purchase in many households being some form of space cooling equipment.
  • The combination of industrialization and cooling demand in high-density urban environments bodes well for the development of district cooling networks.
  • Solar cooling shows great potential since the daily peaks for cooling demand and solar irradiation tend to coincide.

 

Chapter 6 Flexible Electricity Systems

What is different about a flexible electricity system?

  • Electricity is difficult to store and therefore generation and demand must be balanced in real-time. 
  • A flexible electricity system supports secure supply in the face of varying generation and demand.

How do you make a system flexible?

  • To optimise the operation of the electricity system, we must develop flexibility resources across the entire system. 
  • This will include existing flexibility resources such as generation and interconnection but also increased use of demand-side resources and energy storage plus increasing the ability of generation sources.

How critical is policy and regulation in the deployment of smart grids and flexible electricity system?

  • The electricity system's regulatory environment can make it very difficult to change the way services are provided and to deploy new technologies.
  • Policy and regulation must make room for new approaches to enable new and broad-based systems thinking within the electricity system to optimise future investments and ensure that the resulting operations are economical, secure and sustainable.

 

Chapter 7 Hydrogen

Is hydrogen really low carbon?

  • Hydrogen is a low-carbon energy carrier only if it is generated from renewable electricity, bio-mass or from fossil fuels in combination with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
  • Otherwise, hydrogen production emits CO₂, simply shifting the emissions away from the end-user to the point of production.

Will fuel cell electric vehicles ever be competitive with conventional cars?

  • The high costs of fuel cells, stack costs and high-pressure storage tanks need to be reduced.
  • If hydrogen can reach targeted retail costs of USD 4/kg to USD 5/kg  (from around USD 11/kg to USD 15/kg at present) and gasoline would cost around USD 1.9/l, ETP analysis shows FCEVs could become cost-competitive.

What could future applications in industry and buildings be?

  • In industry, on top of classic applications in the refining and chemical sector, hydrogen could be used as energy carrier and reductant for steel making.
  • In buildings, hydrogen may power fuel cell micro-co-generation units.

 

Part 3 Fossil Fuels and CCS

Chapter 8 Coal Technologies

The 2DS calls for cutting current CO emissions from coal-fired power generation by around 90%. Is that achievable?

  • Though a great challenge, this level of reduction can still be achieved through a combination of effective policy and efficient technology.
  • Coal generation must be cut, and technology must reduce emissions from the remaining coal-fired power generation. Measures to achieve this will include:
    • fuel switching to lower-carbon alternatives;
    • more efficient technology; and
    • deployment of CCS.

Certain countries – China, India, the United States – will play an important role if CO emissions from coal are to be reduced sufficiently. Does the IEA target policies for particular countries?

  • Generally speaking, we consider the issue of reducing CO₂ emissions from coal, and the technologies and policies involved, at the global level.
  • Where there is a focus on regional or country-specific analysis, the focus is on what needs to be achieved rather than on measures, particularly policy-related, that could be taken to achieve them.

 

Chapter 9 Natural Gas Technologies

At what point does natural gas shift from low carbon to high carbon?

  • In the 2DS, natural gas acts as a transitional fuel towards a low-carbon energy system (particularly in the power sector), whereas in the 4DS, gas demand rises markedly across the world in all sectors.
  • In the power sector, the comparison between the carbon intensity of the power mix and the specific carbon emissions from combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT), the most efficient and clean plants, can indicate the tipping point when gas becomes high carbon. Globally, that point is reached in 2025.

Which regions experience particular challenges?

  • China and India will rapidly build up the share of gas in their generation mix (currently quite low) by 2030 to 2035 in order to meet strong demand growth, before they gradually decrease it to 2050.
  • The share of gas in electricity generation drops steadily in OECD and other non-OECD countries.
  • With gas turbines and combined cycle power plants typically designed for a 25-plus-year service life, this transition to 2050 will require long-term vision and political will, with quickly evolving policy.

What is technology’s role in securing gas output and in countering associated environmental impacts?

  • As technology development has revolutionised unconventional gas production, further advances will play a key role in solving many of the remaining environmental issues.
    • For instance, the use of advanced seismic to monitor and characterise reservoirs will better enable operators to target  “sweet spots”, where the flow of gas is enhanced – so as to improve gas recovery from each well and reduce the number of wells drilled.
    • Future technologies now at the RD&D stage include water-free fracking.

Is ETP 2012's message on gas consistent with the WEO’s “Golden Age of Gas” scenario?

  • The World Energy Outlook’s Golden Age of Gas scenario (GAS) adopts many of the same assumptions as the WEO's principal New Policies Scenario (NPS), which is broadly equivalent to ETP 2012's 4DS, projecting a long-term temperature rise of 4°C.
  • But ETP 2012's central scenario is the 2DS. The 2DS sets the much tougher target of cutting energy-related CO₂ emissions by more than half in 2050 (vs 2009) and ensuring that they continue to fall thereafter – limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C.
  • To reach the 2DS, the relatively low carbon intensity of natural gas vis-à-vis other fossil fuels offers opportunities over the next two decades but after around 2030, gas starts to lose its advantage.
  • As all scenarios are built on assumptions, however, and reduced gas use after 2030 is less likely:
    • if gas prices become less than those assumed, due to worldwide unconventional developments;
    • if this is accompanied by an acceleration of CCS with gas – as lower-cost energy makes it more affordable for consumers; and/or
    • if very strict and rapidly implemented environmental regulations/actions reduce methane emissions in the gas chain.

 

You speak about the gas revolution, but have you analysed extraction technologies for oil and  coal as well? How could developments there impact your findings?

  • In  extraction of unconventional gas, dramatic improvements have happened over the last decade. We don’t see similar breakthroughs for coal. Higher production of shale oil and light tight oil may be expected in the future, though it would be premature to assume a similar impact to the one we have seen with shale gas. It may, however, help the United States take a further step towards energy independence.
  • Better extraction technologies for oil are no doubt going to increase reserves, and those assumptions are already reflected in the price paths that we have in our scenarios. The same is true for coal. Nevertheless, it should not be forgotten that in the 2DS, carbon pricing will penalise the use of oil, i.e. a CO2 price of around 150 USD/t CO2 in 2050 represents an implicit price increase of 64 USD/bbl.
  • In sum, should we see a similar revolution in coal and oil extraction as we have seen for gas, that would have a big impact on our results and make the 2DS more difficult to achieve. However, at this point in time we have no strong indications that this is likely to happen.

 

Chapter 10 Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies

Can the 2DS's emissions reduction goals for power generation be met without the use of CCS?

  • Yes, but this increases the global capital investments necessary to meet the 2DS emissions constraint by 40% to 57% (relative to the incremental capital investment into the electricity sector required to reach the 2DS target with a portfolio including CCS).
  • Moreover, relative to the 2DS, without CCS there is a 5% decrease in coal-fired electricity generation capacity and nearly 30% increases in gas-fired and nuclear capacity globally by 2050.
  • The installed capacity for all types of renewable generation also increases by 13% by 2050 under a “no CCS” scenario.

Is fossil-fueled power generation with CCS economically competitive with other generation options?

  • Conventional fossil-fueled plants are not competitive under the 2DS. That said, CCS raises the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) by 33%, for natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) with post-combustion capture, to 64%, for pulverised coal (PC) plants with post-combustion or oxy-combustion capture.
  • The LCOE of fossil fuels with CO₂ capture (including estimated transport and storage costs) is competitive with the cost of alternative low-carbon generation options – e.g. nuclear, large-scale hydroelectricity, wind and concentrating solar power – with energy storage.

Are the levels of CCS deployment in the 2DS model realistic?

  • From the standpoint of growth rates, it appears that the 2050 capacity in power generation is technically feasible and, considering that the industrial capture and storage operations are similar in many respects, the industrial capture rates are likewise achievable.
  • The greater challenge, however, lies in achieving the 2020 levels of deployment.
  • From the standpoint of capture technology, constructing 16 GW, and 200 or so Mt of capture capacity, is technically achievable. But developing storage capacity is much more difficult due to the years-long lead time to explore and develop storage projects.
  • Storage site exploration and development, along with development of transport infrastructure and capture facilities, will require public funds and a government commitment to emissions reduction targets consistent with those in the 2DS.

 

Part 4 Scenarios and Technology Roadmaps

Chapter 11 Electricity Generation and Fuel Transformation

The WEO 2011 says that by 2017 the world is locked-in and limiting temperature rise to 2°C is impossible, and it highlights new coal-fired power generation as the biggest problem. Yet ETP 2012 says that the 2DS is quite affordable and achievable. How do these conflicting messages fit together?

  • Delayed action makes it ever harder to achieve the 2°C target. Coal has been the fastest-growing primary energy carrier recently, largely driven by use for power generation in emerging economies.  
  • Around 1 000 GW of coal capacity existing today or under construction may still be operating in 2050 and could cause CO₂ emissions of around 4 Gt in 2050, a level incompatible with the 2DS.
  • To achieve 2DS in 2050, we must close coal power plants before the end of their foreseen technical lifetimes (around 850 GW), resulting in estimated lost revenues of around USD 3.6 trillion through 2050. (This shows what the WEO’s message of lock-in means in practice.)
  • But by making the world much less dependent on fossil fuels, the 2DS results in cumulative electricity-generation cost savings of USD 26 trillion by 2050 against a scenario without any efforts to reduce emissions in the power sector.

If average cost of electricity generation converges, why do we need a CO₂ price for the power sector?

  • To make low-carbon technologies competitive with conventional fossil power technologies, policy action is needed over the next decades.
    • A carbon price is needed to penalise harmful CO₂ emissions from fossil power generation.
    • For some low-carbon technologies, the cost gap to the incumbent fossil generation technologies remains too high even with a CO₂ price. So a technology-specific support mechanism for demonstration projects or large-scale deployment is needed.
  • Solar PV and onshore wind are examples for technologies that have reached cost-competitiveness in some regions due to such support mechanisms.

What are the most important policy actions that can be taken now in order to achieve the transition in the power sector?

  • Achieving the transition in the power sector needed for the 2DS will require investments of around USD 26 trillion over the next 40 years.
  • Most of the capital must come from investors. So energy policy in general must create transparent and predictable market conditions backed by long-term targets in order to attract private capital.
  • More specifically, policy measures should ensure that, if fossil fuels are used in power generation, they are used as efficiently as possible.
    • For example, new coal-fired power generation plants should be based on best available technology available, i.e. super- or ultra-supercritical technology.
  • Introducing carbon pricing ensures the efficient use of fossil fuels while reducing the cost gap for many low-carbon power technologies relative to the prevailing fossil technologies.
  • Many low-carbon technologies will require additional support in the areas of R&D, demonstration or large-scale deployment, depending on their specific maturity status.

Chapter 12 Industry

ETP 2012 says the implementation of best available technologies (BAT) could reduce energy consumption by 20% from current levels. Since those technologies already exist, why is their deployment not taken into account in the short term?

  • The BAT implementation rate depends on many factors. Achieving the full 20% reduction requires refurbishing or replacing all plants in all sectors not yet performing at BAT.
  • The BAT potential can be achieved in the medium to long term as refurbishments are required or when new plants are constructed.
  • Even some refurbishments may not reach BAT level because of barriers like lack of space, etc.

 

Chapter 13 Transport

Is the energy diversification of the transport sector under way?

  • No, the transport sector is still relying on oil, and there are no signs that this will change globally in the near future.

Have electric vehicles reached substantial market shares already?

  • Not really; a record 40 000-plus battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) were sold in 2011, but that is still a very small market share.
  • In China, because of specific policies in cities, electric two-wheelers have reached more than half of the motorised two-wheeler market share, which shows that electric propulsion can be competitive when dedicated policies are put in place.

What are the two most important policy actions that can be taken now in order to achieve the transition in the transport sector?

  • Implement fuel economy policies on road vehicles.
  • Deploy infrastructure for energy-efficient mass transport modes.

How is the mix of vehicle technologies determined?

  • In the 2DS It is based on a mix of inputs, the main ones being:
    • technology cost evolution as production is being deployed; and
    • maximum penetration rates: these are estimated from historical records and replicated for future technologies.

 

Chapter 14 Buildings

ETP 2012 suggests that improving the energy performance of buildings' shells is a necessary first step. Since equipment is easier to upgrade, why start with shells?

  • Improving the shell reduces the amount of heating and cooling equipment needed.
  • Replacing the equipment before improving the building's heating and cooling needs  would result in the installation of sub-optimal equipment that will remain in place for many years.

Why are policy actions for the buildings sector so urgent?

  • About half of the current global building stock is expected to still be standing in 2050.
  • If action is not taken immediately, buildings constructed or refurbished to sub-optimal standards will stay in place for many years to come (even beyond 2050).

 

Chapter 15 Technology Roadmaps

What is the role of the roadmaps?

  • Roadmaps identify priority actions for governments, industry, financial partners and civil society that advance the development and uptake of technology to achieve international climate change goals.
  • Each roadmap represents international consensus on milestones for technology development, legal/regulatory needs, investment requirements, public engagement/outreach and international collaboration.

How do the roadmaps relate to the ETP analysis?

  • The technology roadmaps are closely linked to the ETP analysis, and the vision of the roadmaps is based on the ETP model. 
  • The roadmaps allow further development of the technology analysis in the ETP publication and outline an implementable pathway or strategy to realise a given technology's potential. 

 

Chapter 16  "2075: Can We Reach Zero Emissions?"

Why a chapter about 2075?

  • We believe that it is important to consider the very long term, beyond even 2050, to see if the 2 degree target is achievable. IPCC scenarios indicate this requires reaching zero energy-related CO₂ emissions by 2075.

So, can we reach zero CO₂emissions by 2075?

  • The 2DS, continued after 2050, comes close, since we continue to apply efficiency technologies to slow fuel demand growth, and migrate to very low carbon fuels in all sectors.
  • But the 2DS's technology portfolio does not quite reach zero in 2075.  Additional technologies, perhaps requiring some breakthroughs, may be needed.

What is important in affecting how close we get?

  • Rates of efficiency improvement determine energy demand and the amount of very low carbon fuels needed.
  • Also important are potential applications (and limits to applications) of hydrogen and electricity, two very important (potentially) zero carbon energy carriers. 
    • For example, in transport, we do not see these energy carriers playing a major role for ships or aircraft. 
    • Bioenergy and biofuels could be critical, since these could theoretically virtually all remaining energy service demands that can't use electricity or hydrogen. But the availability of sufficient biomass is highly uncertain.

 

 

Chief differences between ETP 2012 and ETP 2010

Scope

  • Stronger focus on near-term policy recommendations based on the long-term outlook. As part of that, an early excerpt on Tracking Clean Energy Progress was published in April 2012.
  • Energy systems thinking is a theme of ETP 2012, with the analysis highlighting the needs and benefits of addressing the entire system rather than taking a piecemeal approach to policy making.
  • ETP 2012 presents detailed scenarios for nine world regions.
  • ETP 2012 contains analysis of options to eliminate energy-related CO₂ emissions by 2075.

Finance

  • Lower costs for advanced vehicle technologies reduce the additional investment needed to achieve the 2DS in ETP 2012 compared with ETP 2010 estimates.

Energy supply

  • The 2050 CO₂ price to reach the 2DS declines slightly from that in the BLUE Map scenario used in ETP 2010 because:
    • fossil fuel prices are higher in the 2DS compared to the BLUE Map scenario; and
    • the more rapid deployment of some low-carbon technologies, e.g. wind or PV in power generation, leads to faster cost reductions, reducing also the costs to achieve the 2DS.
  • A broadening of the scope of the definition of CO₂ increases 2DS emissions from BLUE Map figures.
  • Because of increased uncertainty over nuclear power in many countries, 2DS nuclear generation in 2050 is 17% lower than in BLUE Map scenario.
  • Renewables reach a share of 57% in the generation mix in 2050 in the 2DS compared to 48% in ETP 2010 because of:
    • recent cost reductions and deployment of renewable technologies;
    • higher costs and thus lower generation for nuclear; and
    • lower share of fossil generation with CCS.

Transport

  • ETP 2012 sees battery manufacturing costs dropping faster than projected in ETP 2010

Input assumptions

GDP projections in ETP 2012 (assumed identical across scenarios)

CAAGR (%)

2009-20

2020-30

2030-50

2009-50

2050-75

World

4.2

3.1

2.9

3.3

1.8

Brazil

4.3

3.3

3.0

3.4

2.8

Russia

4.1

3.3

2.4

3.1

1.8

India

7.7

5.9

4.8

5.8

3.9

China

8.1

4.4

3.2

4.8

2.4

South Africa

3.6

2.6

2.9

3.0

3.1

Mexico

3.7

3.1

2.8

3.1

2.4

United States

2.6

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.1

European Union

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.6

ASEAN

5.3

3.5

3.8

4.1

3.9

Notes: CAAGR = compounded average annual growth rate; ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Sources: IMF, 2011 and 2011-16; IEA analysis.

Fossil fuel prices by scenario

Oil

Scenario

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

IEA crude oil import price

2DS

78

97

97

97

97

92

89

87

2010 USD/bbl

4DS

78

109

114

117

120

119

119

118

 

6DS

78

118

127

134

140

143

146

149

Coal

Scenario

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

OECD steam coal import price

2DS

99

93

83

74

68

64

62

60

2010 USD/tonne

4DS

99

106

108

109

110

109

109

109

 

6DS

99

109

113

116

118

121

123

126

Gas

Scenario

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

US import price

2DS

4

7

8

8

8

7

7

7

2010 USD/Mbtu

4DS

4

7

7

8

9

8

8

8

 

6DS

4

7

8

8

9

9

9

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Europe import price

2DS

7

10

10

10

9

9

9

8

2010 USD/Mbtu

4DS

7

10

11

12

12

12

12

12

 

6DS

7

11

12

13

13

13

14

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan import price

2DS

11

12

12

12

12

12

11

11

2010 USD/Mbtu

4DS

11

13

13

14

14

14

14

14

 

6DS

11

14

14

15

15

15

16

16

Source: IEA analysis

 

Population projections used in ETP 2012

Country

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2075

World

6 896

7 657

8 321

8 874

9 306

9 615

9 827

9 905

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OECD

1 234

1 302

1 353

1 385

1 403

1 408

1 409

1 410

United States

 310

 337

 362

 383

 403

 421

 438

 446

European Union

 500

 511

 516

 515

 512

 504

 496

 494

OECD Asia Oceania

 201

 205

 204

 199

 193

 186

 179

 177

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

non-OECD

5 662

6 354

6 969

7 489

7 904

8 207

8 418

8 495

Brazil

 195

 210

 220

 224

 223

 217

 208

 203

China

1 341

1 388

1 393

1 361

1 296

1 212

1 126

1 086

India

1 225

1 387

1 523

1 627

1 692

1 718

1 708

1 692

Russia

 143

 141

 136

 131

 126

 121

 116

 115

South Africa

 50

 53

 55

 56

 57

 57

 57

 57

Source: IEA analysis

 

 

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