ETP 2015 data visualisation
How will the overall energy system evolve from now to 2050?
The IEA releases interactive data and figures to highlight potential scenarios
This three-part interactive visualisation relies on the data and figures behind Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, the IEA’s flagship publication on energy technologies.
The infographics illustrate how the overall energy system will evolve from now to 2050.
- The Emissions Reduction visualisation allows you to quickly and easily see what impact countries, technologies and sectors may have on carbon dioxide emissions in the decades to come.
- The Energy Flows visualisation focuses on the transport, industry and buildings sectors, highlighting the different fuels (from oil to biofuels), sectors (from petrochemicals to residential) and end uses (from water heating to lighting) that will be affected in the years ahead according to the 2DS.
- The transport visualisation lets you compare selected indicators – from annual roadway travel to roadway length – across countries and regions.
Notes on emissions reductions
- Total emissions include industry process emissions
- Transport emissions include 50% of the emissions from international shipping and aviation that arrives or departs from each country or region.
- End-use energy efficiency also includes avoided transport demand (e.g. through remote communication)
- Reductions from electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles are split into an energy efficiency improvement component and a fuel switching component
All three visualisations use the latest data from ETP 2015.
The 6°C Scenario (6DS) is largely an extension of current trends. By 2050, primary energy use grows by almost two-thirds (compared with 2012) and total GHG emissions rise even more. In the absence of efforts to stabilise atmospheric concentration of GHGs, average global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels is projected to reach almost 5.5°C in the long term (i.e. after 2100) and almost 4°C by the end of this century. Already, a 4°C increase within this century is likely to stimulate severe impacts, such as sea level rise, reduced crop yields, stressed water resources or disease outbreaks in new areas. The 6DS is broadly consistent with the WEO Current Policy Scenario through 2040. The 4DS takes into account recent pledges made by countries to limit emissions and step up efforts to improve energy efficiency, which helps limit long-term temperature rise to 4°C.
The 4°C Scenario (4DS) is, in many respects, already an ambitious scenario that requires significant changes in policy and technologies compared with the 6DS. This long-term target also requires significant additional cuts in emissions in the period after 2050, yet with average temperature likely to rise by almost 3°C by 2100, it still carries the significant hazard of bringing forth drastic climate impacts. The 4DS is broadly consistent with the WEO New Policies Scenario.
The 2°C Scenario (2DS) is the main focus of ETP 2015. It lays out the pathway to deploy an energy system and emissions trajectory consistent with what recent climate science research indicates would give at least a 50% chance of limiting average global temperature increase to 2°C. The 2DS sets the target of cutting energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by almost 60% by 2050 (compared with 2012) and ensuring they continue to decline thereafter. It identifies changes that help ensure a secure and affordable energy system in the long run, while also emphasising that transforming the energy sector is vital but not solely capable of meeting the ultimate goal. Substantial effort must also be made to reduce CO2 and GHG emissions in non-energy sectors. The 2DS is broadly consistent with the WEO 450 Scenario (referring to concentration levels of 450 parts per million in the atmosphere).