Mobility Model (MoMo) for the transport sector

MoMo is a technical-economic spreadsheet model that allows detailed projections of transport activity, vehicle activity, energy demand, as well as CO2 and pollutant emissions in different policy scenarios to 2050.  The mobility model currently covers:

  • 29 countries and regions
  • passenger and freight services
  • all transport modes except pipelines (road, rail, shipping and air)
  • several road vehicle types (2- and 3-wheelers, passenger cars, light trucks, medium and heavy freight trucks, buses)
  • a wide number of powertrain technologies (internal combusion engines, and hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric, electric and fuel cell powertrains)
  • related fuel suppply options (petroleum gasoline and diesel, biofuel and synthetic fuel alternatives to liquid fuels, gaseous fuels including natural gas and hydrogen, and electricity).

MoMo also takes into account the cost of vehicles, fuels and transport infrastructure, as well as material required for the construction of vehicles, related energy needs, and CO2 and pollutant emissions.

To ease the manipulation and implementation of the modelling process, MoMo is split into several modules that can be updated independently.  Figure A.5 provides a representation of how the modules are organised and how they communicate. 

Integrating assumptions on technology availability and cost at different points in the future, the model reveals, for example, how costs could drop if technologies were deployed at a commercial scale and allows fairly detailed bottom-up "what-if" modelling, especially for passenger light-duty vehicles and trucks (Fulton, Cazzola and Cuenot, 2009).

To ensure consistency among the vehicles, energy use is estimated based on stocks (via scrappage functions), utilisation (travel per vehicle), consumption (energy use per vehicle, i.e. fuel economy) and emissions (via fuel emission factors for CO2 and pollutants on a vehicle and well-to-wheel basis) for all modes.

For each scenario, this model supports a comparison of marginal costs of technologies and aggregates to total cost across all modes and regions. 

The primary drivers of technological change in transport are assumptions on the cost evolution of the technology, and the policy framework incentivising adoption of the technology.  Oil prices and the set of policies assumed can significantly alter technology penetration patterns. 

Figure A.5 MoMo structure

Figure A.5 MoMo structure

Note: LDV - light-duty vehicle.