Working together to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy
Banner Image Energy Technology Perspectives

ETP model

The backbone of Energy Technology Perspectives is scenario modelling. The analysis is built on a combination of back casting and forecasting. Back casting lays out plausible pathways to a desired end state. In forecasting, the end state is a result of the analysis.

The analysis aims to identify the most economical way for society to reach the desired outcome. But for a variety of reasons the scenario results do not necessarily reflect the least-cost ideal. Many subtleties cannot be captured in a cost optimisation framework: political preferences, feasible ramp-up rates, capital constraints and public acceptance. For the end-use sectors (buildings, transport and industry), doing a pure least-cost analysis is difficult and not always suitable.

The global ETP model, which is the primary analytical tool used, is a bottom up, technology rich model, containing more than a 1000 technology options. It supports integration and manipulation of data from four soft-linked models:

  • Energy conversion
  • Industry
  • Transport
  • Buildings (residential and commercial/services) 

 

The ETP Model

ETP Model  


The energy conversion module is a cost-optimisation model built on the TIMES framework. The demand-side modules are stock accounting simulation models. Consistency of supply, demand and price is ensured through an iterative process, as there is no hard link between the sector models. The ETP model works in five-year time steps.

 

Input assumptions

GDP projections in ETP 2012 (assumed identical across scenarios)

CAAGR (%)

2009-20

2020-30

2030-50

2009-50

2050-75

World

4.2

3.1

2.9

3.3

1.8

Brazil

4.3

3.3

3.0

3.4

2.8

Russia

4.1

3.3

2.4

3.1

1.8

India

7.7

5.9

4.8

5.8

3.9

China

8.1

4.4

3.2

4.8

2.4

South Africa

3.6

2.6

2.9

3.0

3.1

Mexico

3.7

3.1

2.8

3.1

2.4

United States

2.6

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.1

European Union

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.6

ASEAN

5.3

3.5

3.8

4.1

3.9

Notes: CAAGR = compounded average annual growth rate; ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Sources: IMF, 2011 and 2011-16; IEA analysis.

Fossil fuel prices by scenario

Oil

Scenario

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

IEA crude oil import price

2DS

78

97

97

97

97

92

89

87

2010 USD/bbl

4DS

78

109

114

117

120

119

119

118

 

6DS

78

118

127

134

140

143

146

149

Coal

Scenario

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

OECD steam coal import price

2DS

99

93

83

74

68

64

62

60

2010 USD/tonne

4DS

99

106

108

109

110

109

109

109

 

6DS

99

109

113

116

118

121

123

126

Gas

Scenario

2010

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

US import price

2DS

4

7

8

8

8

7

7

7

2010 USD/Mbtu

4DS

4

7

7

8

9

8

8

8

 

6DS

4

7

8

8

9

9

9

10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Europe import price

2DS

7

10

10

10

9

9

9

8

2010 USD/Mbtu

4DS

7

10

11

12

12

12

12

12

 

6DS

7

11

12

13

13

13

14

14

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Japan import price

2DS

11

12

12

12

12

12

11

11

2010 USD/Mbtu

4DS

11

13

13

14

14

14

14

14

 

6DS

11

14

14

15

15

15

16

16

Source: IEA analysis

 

Population projections used in ETP 2012

Country

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2075

World

6 896

7 657

8 321

8 874

9 306

9 615

9 827

9 905

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OECD

1 234

1 302

1 353

1 385

1 403

1 408

1 409

1 410

United States

 310

 337

 362

 383

 403

 421

 438

 446

European Union

 500

 511

 516

 515

 512

 504

 496

 494

OECD Asia Oceania

 201

 205

 204

 199

 193

 186

 179

 177

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

non-OECD

5 662

6 354

6 969

7 489

7 904

8 207

8 418

8 495

Brazil

 195

 210

 220

 224

 223

 217

 208

 203

China

1 341

1 388

1 393

1 361

1 296

1 212

1 126

1 086

India

1 225

1 387

1 523

1 627

1 692

1 718

1 708

1 692

Russia

 143

 141

 136

 131

 126

 121

 116

 115

South Africa

 50

 53

 55

 56

 57

 57

 57

 57

Source: IEA analysis