With regards to the soaring oil prices IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka calls on OPEC to leave its output unchanged when they meet on September 9. Even with prices down after the record high of USD 147 a barrel in July the current prices “are still too high and harmful to global economy, especially emerging markets”. Considering the current situation with a drop in demand in the United States and many European countries, Mr. Tanaka said, “it is very important to maintain the output level” in order to bring prices down further.

The German magazine ran an interview with IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka on the current and future situation of the oil market, quoting him as warning of a possible supply crunch if investment does not come on stream. Even though the situation will ease in the next one to two years, Mr. Tanaka said, “after that, the situation could become tense again”. Global net decline rates for mature fields are estimated to rise to about 5% per year. “This means that we would need over 3.5 mb/d of new production each year only to maintain the current world production level,” he added.

Addressing the ASEAN Energy Business Forum in Bangkok, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said that Southeast Asian countries needed to provide more timely data on their oil inventories to boost regional energy security. “Despite the recent drop, oil prices are still high (…) such data is essential”, he said. At their annual meeting in the Thai capital, Southeast Asian countries had been discussing ways how to improve their energy supply security, including plans to start a “regional stockpile” of emergency oil supply.

Running a story on energy subsidies in countries like China, India and Mexico which keep domestic energy prices well below market value in fear of inflation and street protests, the NYT refers to IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka who is denouncing this practice. “The price mechanism is not working enough to make consumers more efficient”, he said. Tanaka added that these subsidies (in the case of China an estimated 40 billion US Dollar in 2008) are contributing to the mismatch in supply and demand that has helped push up world oil prices and remove much of the incentive to conserve fuel.

During his visit in China, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka expressed the need for the world’s top coal user and producer to find a way to trap emissions from its generators. “Without (the deployment of) carbon capture and storage technology (.) in China, we simply cannot reduce carbon dioxide enough.” Tanaka stressed the country’s need to invest in mines and transport infrastructure to end national coal shortages, that have crippled Chinas power industry.

Commenting on the future of international oil companies in view of falling production in key regions like the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol is not optimistic. For companies like Shell and BP, he says, “the days are coming to a glorious end because their reserves are declining and they will have difficulty accessing new reserves.” He expects “a new oil order” where most of the new oil is to come from a very small number of national oil companies.

In an interview with the Swiss newspaper Le Temps, Didier Houssin, Director of the IEA Oil Markets Division, said that in 2009, oil production capacities in several countries like Saudi Arabia, Canada and the Caspian region would rise. He added that however, by 2012-2013, production capacity would struggle to match oil demand which is projected to continue to increase. “This is why we call on the producing countries to rise their investments, to authorise more investment by international companies and to create refining capacities.”

Commenting on the situation in the oil market, the head of the IEA Oil Market Division Lawrence Eagles said, “we do see potential for a build in spare capacity in 2009, that should help to improve the situation.” He added, “If Saudi Arabia increases output as it has pledged to do in July through to the end of the year, then that’s going to help build stocks as well.”

In an interview with the German business paper, IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said that “world oil markets will remain tight until 2013”. The market would initially relax from now until 2009/2010, due to a foreseeable increase in supply brought about by new production sites. After 2010 however, supply would drop and demand increase, particularly in developing countries. Producers needed to increase investment and consumers to make more energy efficiency efforts, Mr. Tanaka added.

Asked about his expectations from the Saudi oil talks on 22 June which will involve producers, major industrial nations and banks, IEA chief economist Fatih Birol said that it would be “very good (.) if we (can) see an increase in production now". Oil producers should agree "to increase spare capacity for the next years to come. This is what the markets need to hear."

Reporting about the IEA report Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, the Independent picks up on the Agency’s call for an ‘energy revolution’ to avoid irreversible climate change and its estimate that USD 45 trillion would be needed to halve carbon emissions by 2050. IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka is quoted as saying that “meeting the target of a 50 per cent cut in emissions represents a formidable challenge. We would require immediate policy action and technological transition on an unprecedented scale”.

Noting the high petrol taxes in Europe, IEA oil analyst Julius Walker said, “The pain of a rise in (oil) prices is much less in Europe (..) we may be paying a lot more here (for gasoline), but the rise in a percentage sense is a lot smaller.” Prices for unleaded gasoline in the U.S. have increased by 170% since May 2003, while they have risen 90% for the most popular grade of petrol in France over the same time period.

IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol is quoted as saying that current oil prices which rose to above USD 135 last week, were “bad news” and “too high for producers and consumers”. The combination of soaring demand and limited supply prospects was creating “ground for speculation”. He added that the industry was not investing enough to account for declining production in older fields and that consumer countries had to take steps to tame demand by boosting fuel efficiency and lifting fuel subsidies.

Saying that coal will remain the backbone of global energy supply for the next 25 years, IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol explained the growth of energy demand especially in China and India will mean coal is an essential fuel. “When I was in Davos in January, the energy discussion was all about renewables growth in megawatts. Soon after I was in Singapore and the discussion was all about coal and power generation, talked about in gigawatts. It was like living on two different planets”, Birol said at a conference in Nice.

Discussing Chile’s possible accession to the IEA with officials from the South American country, the Agency’s Deputy Executive Director William Ramsay told BNamericas that “in the context of Chile becoming a candidate for the OECD, we have obviously sent out feelers to see what the country is thinking about its eventual association with the IEA”. He specified that, to join the IEA, Chile would need to accumulate strategic stockpiles equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports.

The newspaper is running a special report on clean energy and refers to the IEA publication Promoting Energy Efficiency Investments which calls on governments to improve energy efficiency. “It is by far the most cost-effective way to deliver increased energy security, reduced energy costs and a cleaner environment”, The Australian quotes the IEA, highlighting that buildings can play a key role as they are responsible for 40 per cent of global energy consumption and 24 per cent of CO2 emissions.

The current surge in oil prices prompts warnings of global recession, the newspaper writes and quotes IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka as saying at the International Energy Forum (IEF) in Rome that he had “some concern” that the price hike is having “a negative impact on economic growth”.

WPS is running a story on the decline of Russian oil output in the first quarter and warnings that state intervention could hamper further investment growth. Alluding to the takeovers by the state-controlled companies Rosneft and Gazprom, IEA oil supply analyst David Fyfe told WPS that a lot will depend on the companies’ “ability to begin new developments in east Siberia and the Arctic. But they have huge amounts of debts and we are now in an environment where globally credit is scarce”.

Asked about the recent decline in Russia’s oil output, IEA Deputy Executive Director William Ramsay explained that it was largely due to heavy tax burden on the oil industry and uncertainty over foreign access to new fields, partly related to the positioning on gas exploration on Sakhalin-1. Yet, he said “we think it (the situation) can be reversed if investment conditions were more amenable to generate investment”.

Explaining the IEA reduction in estimates for growth in world oil demand in the Agency’s April Oil Market Report, Mr. Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA Oil Market division, said “It’s the biggest downward revision we’ve had on demand growth since the September 11 attacks.” Key to the downward revision is the United States’ lower economic-growth prospects, which the International Monetary Fund slashed Wednesday to just 0.5% this year, from 1.5%.