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Oil Markets and Emergency Preparedness The Oil Markets and Emergency Preparedness Office is the action unit ready to assess the impact of any supply disruption in the context of the global oil market and to co-ordinate the IEA's response should the need for emergency action arise. This requires both the constant monitoring and forecasting of market developments together with regular reviews, preparation and testing of emergency policies and procedures in member countries. The office has two divisions:
The Oil Industry Markets Division follows short- and medium-term developments in the international oil market, looking in detail at world oil supply, demand, refinery, biofuels, inventory and price developments. Forecasts through to the end of the following year are published monthly in the Oil Market Report (OMR), with projections for the next five years published twice a year in the Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR). The benchmark status of the OMR has been gained through the scrupulous attention to detail in the analysis and forecasts. Supply estimates are compiled using field-by-field data wherever possible. Projections are then made by looking at individual decline rates, new project developments together with the contributions of NGLs and CTLs. Naturally this supply analysis also looks at production capacity and investment in OPEC and non-OPEC countries, together with a close monitoring of above- and below-ground factors which may affect future supplies. Biofuels are also included on the supply side. The OMR and MTOMR analysis of the biofuels sector draws on the expertise of other divisions within the IEA, together with input from industry experts and the IEA’s plant database. But the supply of products is only one side of the equation. Refined product availability has played an important role in determining the level of oil prices in recent years, and the IEA has met this challenge by stepping up its refinery analysis. Global refinery capacities, expansions, outages and margins are monitored, together with technological and yield improvements, shifts in product specifications and the changing crude slate, to provide a guide to future product supply tightness. Oil demand is looked at in similar detail. Forecasts build on the back of the extensive work of the IEA Energy Statistics Division which compiles and standardizes submissions from IEA Member and non-member countries, together with extensive data-gathering and checking from OIMD analysts. The forecasting model incorporates economic growth projections from the OECD, IMF and other institutions, together with the influence of prices, to project demand by product and by country up to five years forward. Through its close examination of issues that affect oil stocks and prices, the division also looks at other topical issues in the oil market, such as the influence of speculation, liquidity, benchmark evolution and forward price structures. The impact of geopolitics, weather, legislative issues, together with increasing interfuel competition are further issues that have to be considered in the analysis - both from a supply and demand perspective, but also for their impact on investment and price. The results of this work are reported to IEA Members countries through the Standing Group on the Oil Market (SOM), helping Member countries to respond promptly and effectively to changes in market conditions and to highlight areas which may be of interest to policy makers. The SOM works closely with the Standing Group on Emergency Questions (SEQ) on oil market and emergency issues. The Division also makes regular reports on these issues to the IEA Governing Board and other internal committees. Contact this division: Anne.Mayne@iea.org Emergency Planning and Preparations (EPPD) IEA Response System for Oil Supply Emergencies (pdf) The Emergency Planning and Preparations Division is responsible for all aspects of IEA emergency preparedness and reports to the Standing Group on Emergency Questions (SEQ). The basis for the emergency policy of the IEA lies within the Agreement on an International Energy Program, the treaty upon which the IEA was founded in 1974. The treaty includes the commitment of IEA Member countries to hold oil stocks equivalent to no fewer than 90 days of the prior year’s net imports. The treaty also includes an integrated set of emergency response measures for major international oil disruptions, i.e. when supplies are reduced by 7% or more to individual Member countries or to the IEA Member countries as a group. The treaty defines the following emergency response measures: a draw down of oil stocks, demand restraint, fuel-switching out of oil, surge oil production and the sharing of available supplies But, depending on market circumstances, there may be a need for intervention for disruptions below 7%. To accommodate such discretionary action, the IEA developed a complementary set of measures known as the Co-ordinated Emergency Response Measures (CERM). These provide a rapid and flexible system of response to actual or imminent oil supply disruptions. In 1995, the IEA Governing Board made the decision that even in a supply disruption of 7% or more, CERM measures would be considered in conjunction with other emergency response measures. Since then, the IEA has continuously had on-the-shelf response plans which can be quickly tailored to the crisis at hand. CERM measures were effectively used at the time of the first Gulf War (1991) when the IEA implemented a 2.5 million barrels a day contingency plan, most of which was stock draw. Most recently, in September 2005 the IEA implemented a collective action which made available to the market 60 million barrels of crude oil and oil products, in response to concerns about interruptions to oil supply as a result of the severe hurricane damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the US Gulf of Mexico. To ensure the potential of IEA Member countries for rapid and effective response to oil emergencies in changing oil market conditions, the SEQ conducts a regular cycle of Emergency Response Reviews of IEA Member countries, the results of which culminate in a publication on oil security in IEA Member countries. In addition, EPPD periodically tests and updates the IEA's emergency response mechanisms and its contingency plans through its oil supply disruption simulation exercises. These exercises provide thorough training and testing and involve personnel from Member countries, the oil industry and the IEA Secretariat. The SEQ and EPPD work closely with the international oil industry, notably through an Industry Advisory Board (IAB) composed of senior supply, refining and transport experts from oil companies operating within IEA Member countries. The IAB is available for consultation on issues of emergency response and provides expertise in oil supply and logistics. During an emergency, the IAB advises the IEA on the evolving supply situation and assists in determining the extent of any shortfall in supplies. It also advises the IEA on the design of tests of IEA emergency response systems. In co-ordination with the IEA Oil Industry and Markets Division, the Energy Statistics Division and certain IEA Standing Groups and Committees, the SEQ and EPPD examine oil security issues, including global supply/demand prospects, geo-political risks to the oil market, production capacity and refinery flexibility and emergency response policies and procedures. Seminars, conferences and workshops are held on these issues. As oil consumption outside IEA Member countries is rapidly increasing, the IEA is promoting dialogue and information sharing on oil security policies and measures with non-member consuming countries, such as China, India, ASEAN countries as well as some European countries not members of the IEA. With this “outreach” strategy, the IEA endeavors to harmonise measures to be taken by Member and non-member countries in times of a significant supply disruption in order to enhance the impact of such measures. Contact this division: eppd@iea.org Related IEA Links: Oil Market Report On-LineOil (Topic Page) Energy Security (Topic Page)
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