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IEA Publications on 'Energy Security'
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Natural Gas Market Review 2009 -- Gas in a world of uncertainties, 194 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-06413-3, paper €100, PDF €80 (2009) The global economic crisis has not spared the gas sector. Over the past year, we have moved from a tight supply and demand balance with extremely high gas prices to an easing one with plummeting gas prices. Since the last quarter of 2008, demand has been declining dramatically, essentially because of the global recession. Yet significant new volumes of liquefied natural gas will come on stream within the next few years, and United States unconventional gas production has risen rapidly, with global consequences. It remains to be seen how these demand and supply pressures will play out, particularly in the pivotal power sector, in both OECD and non-OECD countries.
Meanwhile, the security of gas supplies has once again become a critical issue, in particular in Europe after it experienced its worst supply disruption during the Russian-Ukraine crisis in January 2009.
Moreover, the current market climate of weakening demand, lower prices and regulatory uncertainties added to the tough financial environment are likely to jeopardise investments, in particular in capital-intensive projects, further undermining long-term energy security in the most fundamental way when economies recover.
The Natural Gas Market Review 2009 looks at these and other major developments and challenges in the different parts of the gas value chain in a selection of IEA countries – The United States, Canada, Spain, Norway, the Netherlands, and Turkey – as well as in non-IEA member countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia, and China.
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Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2009, 126 pages, ISBN N/A, paper €500, PDF €400 (2009)Subscribers to the IEA Oil Market Report will receive the Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) as part of their subscription. To subscribe to the Oil Market Report please click here: Oil Market Report
To order an individual copy of the MTOMR, please order on this page.
AVAILABLE IN PDF ONLY.
This fourth edition of the IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) confronts an economic landscape unrecognisable from that seen at the time of the release of the summer 2008 edition. Crude prices are now 55% lower as financial and economic meltdown have slashed demand, with worldwide contraction in oil use at levels not seen since the early 1980s. But how long will the downturn last, and what is the likely profile of global and regional demand recovery when economic rebound eventually takes root? Has almost a decade of rising prices and costs changed the demand-side blueprint and forced the world onto a lower oil intensity path for the period through 2014?
Equally importantly, the report identifies the impact that weaker demand, low prices and a credit squeeze are having on supply-side investment – in upstream OPEC/non-OPEC supply, biofuels capacity and refining infrastructure alike. The 2009 edition of the MTOMR also delves into the issues of diversifying FSU crude exports, evolving crude and product qualities, the importance of petrochemical markets and perceptions on oil price formation in the down-cycle. Two demand scenarios are presented based on differing economic growth assumptions, with a lower non-OPEC supply scenario also accompanying the lower GDP case. Summary oil balances highlight how OPEC spare capacity could develop during 2008-2014. This year, the MTOMR also consolidates analysis of future crude availability and trade flows, refining capacity and oil products supply implications under one cover.
The MTOMR remains required reading for policy makers, market analysts, industry participants and anyone with an interest in oil market trends. It contains detailed statistical appendices and a wealth of insightful graphics. Alongside its monthly sister publication, the Oil Market Report, the MTOMR is a cornerstone of the IEA commitment to enhancing oil market transparency.
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Energy Policies of IEA Countries – The Netherlands -- 2008 Review, 152 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-04339-8, paper €75, PDF €60 (2009) The energy policies of the Netherlands play an important role in ensuring energy security not only on a national level but in all of north-west Europe. The country’s strategic location makes it an important transit and trade hub for natural gas, oil and electricity. Furthermore, it has important natural gas production and a large oil refining industry. To enhance continental energy security, the government takes a leadership role in natural gas and electricity market development, pushing forward important policies to better integrate and harmonise the existing national and regional markets. One of the world’s leaders in energy research and development (R&D) management, the Netherlands is further increasing its R&D on energy technologies.
With sound policies already in place, the Netherlands has recently announced its intention to create an even more sustainable energy future. As part of this pledge, the government has set ambitious targets: to increase the share of renewables in the energy mix to 20% by 2020; to make a 2% annual efficiency improvement; and to lower greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2020 from the 1990 level. These objectives will not be easy to achieve. To ensure their attainment, the Netherlands will need not only well-designed policies but also their timely and effective implementation.
This review analyses the energy challenges facing the Netherlands and provides critiques and recommendations for further policy improvements. For example, it urges the government to provide policy continuity – such as in promotion regimes for renewable energy – to underpin a sustainable investment climate. It also highlights the need for closer co-ordination among national, regional and local authorities.
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Natural Gas Market Review 2008 -- Optimising investments and ensuring security in a high-priced environment, 288 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-04908-6, paper €80, PDF €64 (2008)FREE DOWNLOAD: Natural Gas Market Review 2008
Over the last 18 months, natural gas prices have continued to rise steadily in all IEA markets. What are the causes of this steady upward trend?
Unprecedented oil and coal prices which have encouraged power generators to switch to gas, together with tight supplies, demand for gas in new markets and delayed investments all played a role. Investment uncertainties, cost increases and delays remain major concerns in most gas markets and are continuing to constitute a threat to long-term security of supply.
A massive expansion in LNG production is expected in the short term to 2012, but the lag in LNG investment beyond 2012 is a concern for all gas users in both IEA and non-IEA markets. Despite this tight market context, regional markets continue on their way to globalisation. This tendency seems irreversible, and it impacts even the most independent markets. Price linkages and other interactions between markets are becoming more pronounced.
The Natural Gas Market Review 2008 addresses these major developments, assessing investment in natural gas projects (LNG, pipelines, upstream), escalating costs, the activities of international oil and gas companies, and gas demand in the power sector. In addition, the publication includes data and forecasts on OECD and non-OECD regions to 2015 and in-depth reviews of five OECD countries and regions including the European Union.
It also provides analysis of 34 non-OECD countries in South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, including a detailed assessment of the outlook for gas in Russia, as well as insights on new technologies to deliver gas to markets.
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Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) 2008, 97 pages, ISBN N/A, paper €500, PDF €400 (2008)FREE DOWNLOAD: Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2008
Why have oil prices hit $140 per barrel? How strong will oil demand be in the upcoming years? Will supply of crude oil, natural gas liquids and biofuels be sufficient to meet this future demand? And, no less crucially, what investments in refining capacity and technology can we expect and will these help ease some of the imbalance in strained oil product markets?
Now into its third year, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report published by the International Energy Agency (IEA) has become a new benchmark, complementing the short-term market analysis provided in the IEA Oil Market Report.
This year’s edition reappraises all upstream and downstream projects worldwide, setting them against a revised demand forecast and expanding the time horizon to 2013. Special features this year include in-depth analyses of price formation, transport trends, non-OECD economies, non-OPEC production decline, project slippage, key crude export pipeline developments and a stronger emphasis on product supply bottlenecks.
An essential report for all policy makers, market analysts, energy experts and anyone interested in understanding and following oil market trends, the Medium-Term Oil Market Report is a further element of the strong commitment of the IEA to improving and expanding the quality, timeliness and accuracy of energy data and analysis.
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Energy in the Western Balkans -- The Path to Reform and Reconstruction, 416 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-04218-6, paper €100, PDF €80 (2008) We offer a 50% discount for countries from the Western Balkans:
Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo.
Please send an email to books@iea.org for your discount to be set up. Please do not place your order before receiving your confirmation e-mail.
The Western Balkans – composed of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo – is a complex region facing significant energy challenges. The conflicts over the break-up of the former Yugoslavia damaged much of the energy infrastructure and compounded the challenge of providing reliable energy supply. Electricity systems in many parts of the region remain fragile and in need of investment.
A priority across the region is to put into place the institutions, infrastructure and policies that can support the provision of reliable, affordable and sustainable energy. For the Western Balkans as a whole, a key element of the reform effort is the Energy Community Treaty – a regulatory and market framework to which the entire region has now subscribed. This Treaty aims to create an integrated regional market for electricity and gas compatible with the European Union’s internal energy market.
This Energy Policy Survey is the first comprehensive review of energy policies and strategies in the Western Balkan region, and also covers important cross-cutting topics such as co-operation and energy trade, oil and gas transportation, and the links between energy and poverty. It identifies and assesses the reforms that are still needed to deliver efficient, modernised energy systems that can assist economic development, address energy poverty and reduce the environmental impacts of energy use.
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World Energy Outlook 2007 -- China and India Insights, 670 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-02730-5, PDF €0 (2007)FREE DOWNLOAD: World Energy Outlook 2007
World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year’s World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006.
China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global.
So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system?
WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it.
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Oil Supply Security -- Emergency Response of IEA Countries 2007, 384 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-04003-8, PDF €0 (2007)FREE DOWNLOAD: Oil Supply Security
When Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf of Mexico in 2005, the region’s oil production and refining infrastructure was devastated and world energy markets were disrupted. The International Energy Agency decided in a matter of days to bring 60 million barrels of additional oil to the market. The emergency response system worked – the collective action helped to stabilise global markets.
Since its founding in 1974, oil supply security has been a core mission of the IEA and the Agency has improved its mechanisms to respond to short-term oil supply disruptions. Nevertheless, numerous factors will continue to test the delicate balance of supply and demand. Oil demand growth will continue to accelerate in Asia; oil will be increasingly produced by a shrinking number of countries; and capacities in the supply chain will need to expand. These are just a few of the challenges facing an already tight market. What are the emergency response systems of IEA countries? How are their emergency structures organised? How prepared is the IEA to deal with an oil supply disruption?
Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries addresses these questions. It presents another cycle of rigorous reviews of the emergency response mechanisms of IEA member countries. The goal of these reviews is to ensure that the IEA stays ready to respond effectively to oil supply disruptions. This publication also includes overviews of how China, India and countries of Southeast Asia are progressing with domestic policies to improve oil supply security, based on emergency stocks.
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Tackling Investment Challenges in Power Generation -- In IEA Countries, 208 pages, ISBN 978-92-64-03007-7, PDF €0 (2007)FREE DOWNLOAD: Tackling Investment Challenges in Power Generation
To meet increasing demand and replace ageing power units, considerable investment in new power generation will be required over the next decade. In most IEA countries a new investment cycle in power generation is looming: Many uncertainties create risks that may lead to inappropriate investment – too little, too late, in the wrong location and with the wrong technology. A window of opportunity now exists to push for a cleaner and more efficient generation portfolio that could transform the power sector and help to build a more sustainable infrastructure lasting over the next 40-50 years.
What are the recent trends and prospects for investment in power generation? What are the main drivers and barriers? This book assesses these issues and gives special emphasis to the question of how uncertainties may affect investment decisions. Uncertainties on CO2 constraints, on power plant licensing, on acceptability of nuclear power, on local opposition to any new energy infrastructure, on government support for specific generation technologies and on government policies on energy efficiency are particularly disturbing. Market liberalisation can also be a key uncertainty, but this may be greatly reduced and deliver considerable benefits if liberalisation is implemented whole-heartedly and backed by on-going government commitment.
Government action is urgently needed: to reduce regulatory uncertainty for investors, to establish effective competitive markets and to give firm policy directions in those areas where markets fall short, such as in taking environmental costs and security of supply into account. Tackling Investment Challenges in Power Generation shows the way forward.
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Energy Security and Climate Policy -- Assessing Interactions, 150 pages, ISBN 92-64-10993-5, PDF €0 (2007)FREE DOWNLOAD: Energy Security and Climate Policy
World energy demand is surging. Oil, coal and natural gas still meet most global energy needs, creating serious implications for the environment. One result is that CO2 emissions, the principal cause of global warming, are rising.
This new study underlines the close link between efforts to ensure energy security and those to mitigate climate change. Decisions on one side affect the other. To optimise the efficiency of their energy policy, OECD countries must consider energy security and climate change mitigation priorities jointly.
The book presents a framework to assess interactions between energy security and climate change policies, combining qualitative and quantitative analyses. The quantitative analysis is based on the development of energy security indicators, tracking the evolution of policy concerns linked to energy resource concentration. The “indicators” are applied to a reference scenario and CO2 policy cases for five case-study countries: The Czech Republic, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.
Simultaneously resolving energy security and environmental concerns is a key challenge for policy makers today. This study helps chart the course.
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